Musings of an unknown citizen - 15/04/2014

Opinion Polls

Latest opinion poll by NDTV shows BJP and its allies is expected to get around 275 with the ruling Congress led front getting around 111 and rest by all the other parties together. This appears to be a far cry from the initial euphoria when Modi came into picture as BJP's prime ministerial candidate. The expectations were that BJP on its own will get the simple majority. Is there some weakening in the BJP's strength over the period?

May be I am stretching my imagination too far, but I feel the final tally could be around 250 for BJP, 130-140 for Congress for the rest. If BJP and its current allies together get only this kind of a tally they will be in for a trouble in the long run as they may have to depend on one of the three ladies viz., Didi (Mamata Banerjee), Amma (Jayalalitha) or Mayavathi (behenji). If this happens we can again see the same state of policy inaction in future also.

Alliances & Campaigning

All the pre-poll alliances are set now as three phases of voting has also completed. It appears BJP is literally clutching to all the available proverbial straws as they cobbled a big combine of pre-poll alliances like the six minor and minuscule players in Tamil Nadu, Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh, Ramvilas Paswan's party (LJD I believe). But the story alliance with Telugu Desam Party went like a proverbial bollywood / tollywood potboiler. Initially Mr Chandra Babu Naidu asserted that he and his party (Telugu Desam) is not going to align with a party with hindutva ideology and those who abetted the bifurcation of the state of Andhra Pradesh. Then he took an about turn (which is his normal style always) and went for a discussion with BJP for an alliance. Then both came out with a public statement that this idea of alliance has been dropped due differences in settlement of constituencies. Again they went through another round of talks and confirmed that they had an alliance. 

Even now, this two step forward and one step backward dance by the these parties is showing its effects. Supports of TDP in several constituencies are against the allotment of their constituencies to BJP. Even the leaders of BJP are unhappy though they do not have an appreciable and apparent strength particularly in Seemandhra (residual Andhra Pradesh).

Seat allocation of all the parties in Andhra Pradesh has become a farce during the last 2-3 elections. A candidate is announced for a particular constituency. The local leaders stage a dharna / sit in strike, break some furniture / burn the party offices. Party relents and gives the seat to local candidate. Immediately, the so called leader and his / her supports starts slogans in favour of the party and its leaders. Alternatively if the party does not relent, he may contest as an independent candidate like Mr Jaswant Singh in Barmer or defect to another party (so called jumping stars) and get a ticket there and contest for that party. This can be funny some times like the candidate in one of the Delhi constituencies (Mr Tomar in Gautam Budhanagar) who submitted nomination on Congress ticket and then defected to BJP. Don't understand how these guys can criticize the same set of leaders whom till a day before felt like demigods and immediately after defection became demons.

Saw the interview of BJP party president Rajnath Singh on NDTV yesterday. According to him there is no ill feeling or bad blood between the party leaders. If that is so, why only Mr Modi is very active in campaign compared to the previous election where every leader worth his salt was campaigning very vigorously. When the anchor asked him why they apologised in the meeting of party's minority cell (read Muslims) for any mistakes and whether the same applies to 2002 riots, he gave a pearl of wisdom stating that this does not apply to 2002 but whatever past and future mistakes. I wonder why one should apologise for future mistakes. Does it mean we expect some mistakes in future?

Coming to the ruling party, it appears though there is some fight back, the party is mainly in a state of comatose. Except for Rahul Gandhi there was no major campaigner for them. Even he confirmed himself to some parts of Gujarat and northern India. However during the last 7-10 days there is a slight change with others like his mother Sonia, sister Priyanka and other leaders. Rahul appears weak in campaigning and he need to change his style to forceful talking as I see most of the time his speeches appear listless.

Then there is Mulayam who says why death for rape? The law or the courts actually have not prescribed death penalty for rape. This is only for repeat offenders like the Mumbai case or cruelty. Also the way the man was supporting removal of the death penalty for rape like "Boys are boys" like comment is not a correct one. He should publicly apologise for this comment.

Then there is another leader called Mr K Chandra Sekhar Rao of TRS party in Telangana. According to him, why Telangana needs leaders from Andhra and they should be thrown out. Are we living in a country with different states or the two bifurcated states are two different countries? This kind of nonsensical comments should be stopped by the Election Commission like they did with Azam Khan, Masood and Amit Shah in Uttar Pradesh.